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>TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
>WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
6:20 PM ECT THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
...TAMMY STILL MOVING WEST AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FORECAST...
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER DATE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 622 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
ON ITS PROJECTED PATH, THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. TAMMY IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WHILE SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING ITS EVENTUAL PATH AND STRENGTH AT THIS TIME, RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR IMPACTS TO INCLUDE STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALING APPROXIMATELY 1 TO 4 INCHES AND ROUGH SEAS, REACHING AS HIGH AS 9 FEET BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN IF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND MOVES EVEN CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM) PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL STORM TAMMY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS.
A TROPICAL STROM WATCH IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 12 MIDNIGHT OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
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FORECASTER
LETITIA HUMPHREYS